Tuesday, September 27, 2011

New Home Sales End the Summer with a Whimper

September 26, 2011 (Chris Moore)

Sales of new single-family homes declined for the fourth consecutive month in August keeping 2011 on pace for being one of the worst years for single-family home sales since the Census Bureau started keeping records back in 1963.

Sales of new homes declined 2.3 percent from July to August at a seasonally adjusted rate of 295,000, down from a revised rate of 302,000 in July. The rate of sales in July was revised upward from 300,000 to 302,000.

New single-family home sales had fallen to an all-time low sales rate of 279,000 in February and were followed by gains in March and April, but have been declining since May.

The sales rate in August was still 6.1 percent higher than the estimated sales rate of 278,000 units sold in August of 2010.

Last year was the worse year on record for new single-family home sales with only 323,000 homes sold. At the end of August last year, 232,000 new single-family homes had been sold. Through the end of August this year, 212,000 new homes have been sold, a decline of 8.3 percent.

Year-to-date, sales are 32.9 percent lower in the Northeast, 7.8 percent lower in the Midwest, 4.8 percent lower in the South, and 6.8 percent lower in the West than they were during the same period last year.

The median sales price of the new homes sold in August was $209,100, which was down from $222,000 in July. The average sales price for a new home in August was 246,000, down from $272,300 in July. Seventy-four percent of the new single-family homes sold in August were under $300,000.

Prices are also below last years levels with the median home price in August of last year being $226,000 and the average sales price being $268,800.

Only the Midwest region experienced a gain in monthly new home sales from July to August with the annual rate of sales increasing 8.2 percent. The South and the West posted declines of 2.4 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively, while the Northeast had the largest decline of 13.6 percent

Compared to a year ago, the annual rate of new single-family home sales in the South and the Midwest increased 9.3 and 65.6 percent, respectively, while the West and the Northeast posted declines of 10.6 and 36.7 percent, respectively.

Inventory of new single-family homes remained relatively balanced by historic standards with a seasonally adjusted 162,000 homes available for sale, which translates into a 6.6 months supply of inventory.

Tags: Census Bureau, new home sales, single-family homes, median sales price, average sales price

Source:
Census Bureau
LoanRateUpdate.com

What Goes Up, Must Come Down

September 26, 2011 (Chris Moore)

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of all economic activity in the United States and although much of the media plays up the importance of housing in an economic recovery, the fact remains many Americans suffer from the same affliction our government does…too much spending and not enough income.

Americans went on a spending spree in the first decade of the millennium and didn’t stop until it all came crashing down on them 7 years later. The problem was we bought too much on credit and not enough for cash while household incomes were in decline.

And it was all too easy.

The credit was easy and the interest rates were cheap. The value of our homes rose so fast we couldn’t wait to take a second or refinance our home to pull cash out and buy those toys that under normal circumstances we would never have considered purchasing. Too expensive to pay off in five years? Stretch it out over 15 or 30 years and what was once unobtainable suddenly became affordable.

Credit card offers arrived in the mail daily. Heck, they’d even transfer the balance from one credit card to another for free, with no interest for six months, and when they started charging for interest…just get another one!

First year mortgage rates under one percent? What a deal! A person or family making $60,000 a year could qualify for a half million dollar home and “IF” the payments got too high, you could sell it, take the equity and buy another home. Prices were going to go up forever, remember?

But as we all know, what goes up, must come down. And it did…hard.

Here’s what we’ve been left with:

Total US Mortgage Debt:

2000: $6.75 trillion
2011: $13.72 trillion

Total US Consumer Debt:

2000: $1.53 trillion
2011: $2.45 trillion

Real median household income (adjusted for inflation):

2000: $53,164
2010: $49,445

Personal debt per US citizen:

2000: $29,200
2011: $51,289

We spent and we spent and we spent and we spent, not because we became wealthier, but because our ability to spend became easier and cheaper.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I do believe it was ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan who believed in the concept of obtaining wealth through debt. I would have to say that there are millions of Americans who would dispute that theory.

There’s plenty of blame to spread around as to how we got where we are at today. A lax monetary policy by the Fed, social engineering by our government, a lack of oversight by Congress, greedy banks and mortgage companies (taking advantage of a lax monetary policy), an over-zealous housing and real estate industry, and consumers who wanted to believe that this would last forever by buying homes that they should have never been able to buy.

So what happens when you get to the point where you can’t spend anymore? You get 2011.

Our economic problems go far beyond just fixing the housing industry. Just like our government, a little financial discipline on our part may be in order.

Tags: consumer debt, mortgage debt, personal debt, consumer spending, easy credit, cheap mortgage rates, economic activity

Source:
LoanRateUpdate.com

August Loan Modifications Lowest of the Year for Freddie Mac

September 26, 2011 (Brian Michael)

Freddie Mac completed 8,639 loan modifications in the month of August, the lowest total amount of modifications completed in any month since the beginning of the year according to the recently released Monthly Volume Summary for August.

For the eight months ending August 31, 2011, Freddie Mac has completed 83,661 loan modifications, an average of 10,458 loan modifications per month.

The delinquency rate for single-family homes in Freddie Mac’s portfolio decreased to 3.49 percent from 3.51 percent in July. A year ago the delinquency rate for single-family homes was 3.83 percent.

Single-family home delinquency rates have dropped every month for the last year with the exception of November 2010 when the delinquency rate increased from 3.82 percent the previous month to 3.85 percent in November.

Delinquency rates for multi-family dwellings in August remained unchanged from 0.35 percent in July. The delinquency rate in August of last year was 0.27 percent.

Single-family delinquencies are based on the number of mortgages 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure as of period end while multifamily delinquencies are based on the unpaid principal balance of mortgages 60 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure as of period end.

Freddie Mac’s total mortgage portfolio decreased at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent from July to August as their total holdings decreased from $2.120 trillion to $2.116 trillion.

Single-family refinance loan purchase and guarantee volume was $16.3 billion in August, reflecting 59 percent of total mortgage purchases and issuances. That was an increase from $12.2 billion in July and down from $21.2 billion in August of last year.

Tags: Freddie Mac, Monthly Volume Report, single-family homes, delinquency rates, multi-family dwellings, mortgage portfolio, loan modifications

Source:
Freddie Mac
LoanRateUpdate.com

Mortgage Interest Rates Decline Slightly Last Week, New Lows Expected

September 26, 2011 (Shirley Allen)

Mortgage interest rates declined slightly last week with the 5/1 ARM hitting yet another record low and the latest economic actions taken by the Fed could lead to even lower mortgage rates in the coming weeks and months according to the data collected by LendingTree’s Weekly Mortgage Rate Pulse.

With the announcement by the Federal Reserve of its latest economic plan to bolster the sagging economy, mortgage interest rates are expected to hit or remain at record lows in the coming weeks and months. The Fed’s plan is to essentially swap $400 billion in short term debt for the same amount in long term debt with the anticipated affect of lowering Treasury Bond yields, which mortgage interest rates generally follow.

The day after the Fed announced its new plan, 10-year Treasury yields fell to record lows which could lead to some pretty favorable reports concerning interest rates later in the week, especially if you’re looking to refinance.

Fixed Rate Mortgages as of September 20, 2011:

The average home loan rates offered for 30 year fixed rate mortgages was 4.34 percent (4.56% APR), which was down from 4.37 percent the previous week.

The lowest mortgage rate offered for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage was 3.75 percent (3.88% APR), which was unchanged from the rate offered the week before.

The average home loan rates offered for 15 year fixed rate mortgages was 3.59 percent (3.87% APR), down from 3.61 percent reported the previous week

The lowest mortgage rate offered for a 15 year fixed rate mortgage was 2.875 percent (3.11% APR), which also remained unchanged from the week before.

Adjustable Rate Mortgages as of September 20, 2011:

The average home loan rate offered for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was 3.24 percent (3.50% APR), which was down from 3.34 percent reported last week.

The lowest mortgage rate offered for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was 2.375 percent (3.04% APR), which was down from 2.5 percent the week before.

See how your state compares below by comparing mortgage data including a snapshot of the lowest 30-year fixed rates offered by lenders, average loan-to-value ratio and percentage of consumers with negative equity:

STATE-BY-STATE MORTGAGE DATA 9/20/11

*Updated Quarterly


STATE


LOWEST MORTGAGE RATE


LOAN-TO-VALUE RATIO*


NEGATIVE EQUITY*


US Average


3.75% (3.88% APR)


69.8%


33.5%


Alabama


3.75% (3.88% APR)


68.0%


29.5%


Alaska


3.88% (4.00% APR)


65.8%


19.5%


Arizona


3.75% (3.88% APR)


93.1%


38.9%


Arkansas


3.88% (3.99% APR)


72.3%


43.0%


California


3.88% (4.00% APR)


70.0%


34.4%


Colorado


3.75% (3.88% APR)


72.3%


22.9%


Connecticut


3.75% (3.87% APR)


60.2%


43.4%


Delaware


3.75% (3.84% APR)


67.3%


38.8%


District of Columbia


3.75% (3.88% APR)


58.6%


26.8%


Florida


3.75% (3.88% APR)


87.8%


38.9%


Georgia


3.88% (4.00% APR)


80.9%


26.5%


Hawaii


4.00% (4.12% APR)


53.9%


27.0%


Idaho


3.75% (3.88% APR)


71.7%


30.3%


Illinois


3.88% (4.00% APR)


72.4%


32.3%


Indiana


3.75% (3.85% APR)


69.4%


28.4%


Iowa


4.38% (4.51% APR)


67.3%


44.2%


Kansas


4.38% (4.51% APR)


70.3%


32.2%


Kentucky


3.75% (3.88% APR)


67.9%


52.7%


Louisiana


4.38% (4.51% APR)


75.2%


82.4%


Maine


3.88% (3.99% APR)


58.3%


30.7%


Maryland


3.75% (3.84% APR)


70.3%


25.9%


Massachusetts


3.88% (4.00% APR)


61.9%


47.0%


Michigan


3.88% (4.00% APR)


84.0%


33.4%


Minnesota


3.75% (3.85% APR)


66.8%


22.7%


Mississippi


4.38% (4.51% APR)


78.2%


29.2%


Missouri


3.88% (4.00% APR)


71.9%


32.4%


Montana


4.38% (4.51% APR)


60.3%


33.9%


Nebraska


4.38% (4.51% APR)


73.4%


44.7%


Nevada


3.88% (4.00% APR)


112.7%


53.7%


New Hampshire


3.88% (3.99% APR)


70.3%


26.2%


New Jersey


3.75% (3.84% APR)


62.8%


29.9%


New Mexico


3.75% (3.88% APR)


67.9%


45.9%


New York


3.75% (3.85% APR)


48.7%


36.0%


North Carolina


3.75% (3.88% APR)


71.6%


32.4%


North Dakota


4.38% (4.51% APR)


61.1%


36.3%


Ohio


3.88% (4.00% APR)


75.8%


27.5%


Oklahoma


3.88% (3.99% APR)


71.8%


50.6%


Oregon


3.88% (4.03% APR)


69.8%


19.9%


Pennsylvania


3.75% (3.84% APR)


61.1%


42.0%


Rhode Island


4.38% (4.51% APR)


63.7%


38.7%


South Carolina


3.88% (4.00% APR)


71.5%


28.9%


South Dakota


3.88% (3.99% APR)


N/A


N/A


Tennessee


3.88% (4.00% APR)


71.6%


29.9%


Texas


3.88% (4.00% APR)


68.1%


31.6%


Utah


3.88% (4.00% APR)


72.9%


22.8%


Vermont


4.38% (4.51% APR)


N/A


N/A


Virginia


3.75% (3.85% APR)


71.7%


25.1%


Washington


3.88% (4.00% APR)


68.3%


21.7%


West Virginia


4.38% (4.51% APR)


66.8%


50.6%


Wisconsin


4.38% (4.51% APR)


69.1%


36.0%


Wyoming


3.88% (4.01% APR)


63.1%


24.2%

Lowest mortgage interest rates shown reflect the payment of one discount point. Mortgage interest rates will vary based on the borrower's loan details and credit profile.

Source:



Tags: lendingtree, mortgage rates, mortgage loans, average home rates, 30 year fixed, 15 year fixed, 5/1 arm, adjustable rate mortgage, fixed mortgage, lenders

Source:LoanRateUpdate.com

Monday, September 26, 2011

FHFA: Home Prices Up Fourth Consecutive Month

September 22, 2011 (Shirley Allen)

Home prices increased 0.8 percent from June to July but were still 3.3 percent below year ago levels according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index (HPI). It was the fourth consecutive month of price gains for the HPI.

According to the HPI, home prices have declined 18.4 percent below the June 2007 peak and are roughly at the same levels seen in March 2004.

FHFA gathers its data by calculating purchase prices of houses backed by mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The data is then broken down into nine geographic Census Divisions.

Month-over-month, eight of the nine Census Divisions experienced price gains with only the South Atlantic region posting a decline of 0.4 percent. The largest price gain was posted in the West North Central Region which saw a price increase of 3.6 percent.

Only one of the nine Divisions experienced a year-over-year price gain. The West North Central Division posted a year-over-year price gain of 0.2 percent, while the Mountain Division posted the largest decline of 6.9 percent.

FHFA Home Prices September 2011

Census Divisions:

Pacific: Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California

Mountain: Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico

West North Central: North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri

West South Central: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana

East North Central: Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio

East South Central: Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama

New England: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut

Middle Atlantic: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania

South Atlantic: Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida

Tags: FHFA, home prices, HPI, census divisions, price gains, price declines

Source:
FHFA
LoanRateUpdate.com

Mortgage Interest Rates Remain at Record Lows, May Go Lower

September 22, 2011 (Shirley Allen)

Continued economic concern kept mortgage interest rates at record lows according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS), but the Fed’s new economic action could lead to even lower rates.

Troubling economic news in Europe and at home kept rates near last week’s record lows with the 15 year fixed rate mortgage again setting a new low and the Federal Reserve announced a new economic plan which basically swaps short term debt for long term debt that is expected to keep interest rates low over the next year.

Fixed Rate Mortgages (FRM):

The 30 year FRM remained unchanged from least week’s record low averaging 4.09 percent, with an average of 0.7 points. The 30 year FRM averaged 4.37 percent a year earlier.

The 15 year FRM set a new low averaging 3.29 percent this week with an average 0.6 points, down from 3.30 percent reported the previous week, and down from 3.82 percent a year ago.

Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM):

ARM interest rates increased slightly this week with the 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid ARM averaging 3.02 percent, up from 2.99 percent last week, with an average of 0.6 points. The 5 year ARM averaged 3.54 percent a year earlier.

The 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM increased one basis point, averaging 2.82 percent this week with an average of 0.6 points, up from 2.81 percent the previous week. A year ago, the 1 year ARM averaged 3.46 percent.

Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist of Freddie Mac, stated, "A sluggish economy and investor concerns over the European debt markets left mortgage rates largely unchanged this week. Manufacturing activity in both the New York and Philadelphia regions contracted in September. Moreover, the Federal Reserve Board reported that households lost nearly $150 billion in net worth in the second quarter, representing the first quarterly decline in a year.”

"Meanwhile, recent data on the housing market were mixed. The Census Bureau reported that new housing construction dipped five percent in August to an annual pace of 571,000 homes, and homebuilder confidence remained near record lows for September according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Existing home sales, however, rose to 5.03 million homes in August, which represented the strongest annualized rate since March of this year," he added.


30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages US NE SE NC SW W
Average 4.09 4.08 4.16 4.09 4.14 4.02
Fees & Points 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8


15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages US NE SE NC SW W
Average 3.29 3.30 3.30 3.27 3.36 3.26
Fees & Points 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6


5/1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgages US NE SE NC SW W
Average 3.02 3.09 2.95 3.16 3.04 2.89
Fees & Points 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.6
Margin 2.74 2.74 2.75 2.72 2.76 2.73


1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgages US NE SE NC SW W
Average 2.82 2.88 2.72 3.16 2.70 2.68
Fees & Points 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5
Margin 2.76 2.80 2.75 2.73 2.77 2.75


The National Mortgage Rate Snapshot One Year Ago One Week Ago
30-YR 15-YR 5/1-YR 1-YR ARM 30-YR 15-YR 5/1-YR 1-YR ARM
Average 4.37 3.82 3.54 3.46 4.09 3.30 2.99 2.81
Fees & Points 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Margin N/A N/A 2.75 2.77 N/A N/A 2.74 2.76
Tags: 15 year fixed, 30 year fixed, fixed rate mortgage, freddie mac, interest rates, mortgage rates, 5-year hybrid, 1-year treasury

Source:
Freddie Mac
LoanRateUpdate.com

Home Sales Increase as Investors Scoop up Distressed Properties

September 22, 2011 (Chris Moore)

Distressed property sales were almost 7 percent higher in August than July and investors came out in force to scoop them up, helping existing home sales to post a 7.7 percent gain according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Investors accounted for 22 percent of all purchase activity in August, up from 18 percent in July, as distressed property sales increased to 31 percent of all homes sold, an increase of 6.9 percent over July.

As a consequence of the deep discounts that distressed properties typically sell for, median home prices continued to decline, falling to an average of $168,300 in August, down from $174,000 in July. The national median home price was also 5.1 percent lower than August 2010.

Total existing home sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and co-ops, sold at a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.03 million in August, up from a revised 4.67 million in July. Sales were 18.6 percent higher than the 4.24 million units sold in August 2010 which was primarily due to home sales last year suffering from the hangover caused by the expiration of the home buyer tax credit.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, stated, “Some of the improvement in August may result from sales that were delayed in preceding months, but favorable affordability conditions and rising rents are underlying motivations. Investors were more active in absorbing foreclosed properties. In additional to bargain hunting, some investors are in the market to hedge against higher inflation.”

Purchase cancellations, which first spiked in June, continued to be a source of concern in August as cancellations caused by declined mortgage applications and low appraised values increased even higher from 16 percent in July to 18 percent in August.

Regionally, existing home sales in the Northeast increased 2.7 percent to an annual pace of 770,000 sales in August and are 10.0 percent higher than August 2010, while existing home sales in the Midwest rose 3.8 percent to a level of 1.09 million sales and are 26.7 percent above year ago levels.

In the South, existing home sales increased 5.4 percent to an annual level of 1.94 million sales in August and are 16.9 percent above August 2010 levels, and in the West, existing home sales increased 18.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.23 million sales in August and are 13.0 percent below year ago levels.

The median price in the Northeast was $244,100, a decline of 5.1 percent from a year ago, while the median price in the Midwest was $141,700, down 3.5 percent from August 2010.

The median price in the South was $151,000, a decline of 0.8 percent from a year ago and in the West the median price was $189,400, down 13.0 percent from August 2010.

Tags: NAR, existing home sales, investors, distressed property sales, declining prices, low appraisals, cancelled contracts, median home price

Source:
NAR
LoanRateUpdate.com

Mortgage Applications Hold Steady from Previous Week

September 21, 2011 (Chris Moore)

Applications for home purchases declined last week while refinance applications increased slightly as homeowners continued to take advantage of low interest rates according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 16, 2011.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, which includes purchase applications and refinance applications, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent from the previous week.

On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 25.2 percent compared with the previous week. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 3.15 percent.

The unadjusted figures do not compensate for the Labor Day holiday in the previous survey.

Purchase Applications:

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.7 percent from the previous week. The four week moving average is down 0.54 percent for the adjusted Purchase Index.

The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 17.1 percent compared with the previous week.

Refinance Activity:

The Refinance Index increased 2.2 percent from the previous week. The four week moving average is down 3.91 percent.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 78.3 percent of total applications from 76.8 percent the previous week.

Mortgage Interest Rates:


Average Contract Mortgages Rates
(80% loan-to-value)


Type of
Loan


Interest Rate (%)


Points


Effective Rate


Current


Previous


Current


Previous

30-Year FRM Conforming
($417,500 or less)

4.29


4.29


0.41


.038


Increased

30-Year FRM Non-Conforming
($417,501 or more)

4.55


4.57


0.46


0.42


Increased

15-Year FRM

3.46


3.52


0.45


0.38


Decreased

FHA 30-Year

4.07


4.08


0.51


0.48


Increased

5/1 ARM

2.96


2.99


0.49


0.46


Increased


The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 6.7 percent of total applications from 7.3 percent the previous week.

This week’s results are based on an enhanced sample which captures more than 75% of all retail and consumer direct channel mortgage applications, compared to 50% previously.

Tags: MBA, home purchase applications, mortgage rates, fixed rate mortgage, adjustable rate mortgage, refinance, interest rate

Sources:
Mortgage Bankers Association
LoanRateUpdate.com

Defaults Rates on First and Second Mortgages Hold Steady in August

September 21, 2011 (Brian Michael)

Default rates on first and second mortgages remained virtually unchanged from July to August and remained well below the default levels of a year ago according to the latest S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices.

Default rates on first mortgages declined from 1.93 percent in July to 1.92 percent in August while default rates on second mortgages increased slightly from 1.25 percent in July to 1.27 percent in August.

Mortgage default rates have been on the decline since March 2009 when second mortgage default rates peaked at 4.66 percent, followed two months later when first mortgage default rates peaked at 5.67 percent in July 2009.

Auto loan default rates also increased slightly to 1.31 percent in August, up from 1.27 percent in July and bank card default rates decreased from 5.64 percent in July to 5.26 percent in August.

“While there were some moderately mixed results, the overall picture is broadly optimistic,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Indices. “All indices show default rates well below where they were in the 2008/09 recession, and some are still falling. Bank cards traditionally have the highest default rates, so the decline from 5.64% in July to 5.26% in August is a good sign. The same is true for Miami, where we saw the default rates fall from 5.37% to 4.52% over the month. While not as large, the other four cities, mortgages and auto loans all saw declining or stable default rates and all of these are posting rates below 2.5%, some even below 1.5%. Again, good news for the consumer. ”


Four of the five Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) posted declines in month-over-month consumer default rates. Miami reported the largest decline from 5.37 percent in July to 4.52 percent in August, followed by Chicago which declined from 2.54 percent in July to 2.43 percent in August and Dallas’ default rate declined from 1.60 in July to 1.51 in August.

Los Angeles reported the small decline, from 2.15 in July to 2.07 percent in August while New York’s default rate remained unchanged at 1.80 percent. Default rates in all five MSAs were significantly lower than August 2010.

Tags: S&P, Experian, Consumer Credit Default Indices, mortgage default rates, auto loan default rates, bank card default rates

Source:
Standard and Poor
LoanRateUpdate.com

National Weekly Home Sales Volume Increases, Prices Unchanged

September 21, 2011 (Chris Moore)

Weekly home sales volume got back on track last week after dipping the previous week for the first time in four weeks, while weekly home prices remained steady according to the National Home Sales Snapshot released by DataQuick.

The number of homes sold over the previous thirty day period ending September 15 was 189,150 properties, up from the previous week’s total sales of 187,688 properties.

The number of homes sold was 8.6 percent higher than the 174,245 homes sold during same period a year ago. Home sales for the same period three years ago were down 7.6 percent when 204,793 homes were sold.

The median price of a home sold over the previous thirty day period ending September 15 was unchanged from the previous week at $182,000. Home prices were 7.4 percent lower than the same period a year ago and down 20.9 percent from the same period three years ago.

During the same period last year, the median price of a home in the U.S. was $196,500. Three years ago the median price during this same period was $230,000.

Over the last five years, median home prices have ranged from a high of $275,000 to a low of $170,000.

Sales volume for a thirty day period within the last five years has ranged from a high of 339,669 properties sold to a low of 119,636.

The National Home Sales Snapshot includes 98 out of the top 100 metropolitan statistical areas covering 66.25 percent of U.S. home sales.

Tags: DataQuick, home sales, median home price, sales volume

Source:
DataQuick
LoanRateUpdate.com

Mortgage Delinquency Rates Decrease in August

September 21, 2011 (Shirley Allen)

Monthly mortgage delinquency rates declined by 2.5 percent in August after two consecutive months of increases according to the latest “First Look” Mortgage Report released by Lender Processing Services (LPS), which is derived from its loan-level database of nearly 40 million loans.

The total number of loans that are 30 days or more past due, but not yet in foreclosure, dropped from 8.34 percent in July to 8.15 percent in August, a decline of 2.5 percent. Despite the drop in the monthly rate, the delinquency rate was 4.11 percent higher than a year ago.

The drop in the delinquency rate equates to about 133,000 less loans that were delinquent in August, however, since foreclosure inventories remained virtually unchanged from July to August, the majority of those loans likely entered the foreclosure pre-sale inventory while the rest were cured, sold, etc.

The number of properties in foreclosure decreased slightly from 2,156,000 in July to 2,148,000 in August.

The “First Look” report contains highlights of the company’s forthcoming Mortgage Monitor report which will provide a more in-depth review including an analysis of data supplemented by in-depth charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations.

Early highlights of the report include:

Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure): 8.13% compared to 8.34% in July 2011

Month-over-month change in delinquency rate: -2.5% compared to 2.4% in July 2011

Year-over-year change in delinquency rate: 4.11% compared to -10.4% in July 2011

Month-over-month change in foreclosure presale inventory rate: 0.1% compared to -0.4% in July 2011

Year-over-year change in foreclosure presale inventory rate: 8.2% compared to 9.7% in July 2011

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: (A) 4,249,000 compared to 4,382,000 in July 2011

Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure: 1,866,000 compared to 1,899,000 in July 2011

Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: (B) 2,148,000 compared to 2,156,000 in July 2011

Number of properties that are 30 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure: (A+B) 6,397,000 compared to 6,538,000 in July 2011

States with highest percentage of non-current* loans: FL, MS, NV, NJ, IL (FL, NV, MS, NJ, IL in July 2011)

States with the lowest percentage of non-current* loans: MT, WY, AK, SD, ND (MT, WY, AK, SD, ND in July 2011)

*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.

Notes:
(1) Totals are extrapolated based on LPS Applied Analytics’ loan-level database of mortgage assets.
(2) All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand.

Tags: LPS, mortgage delinquency rate, foreclosure inventory, non-current loans

Source:
LPS
LoanRateUpdate.com

FHA Mortgage Applications Increase in August

September 20, 2011 (Shirley Allen)

Mortgage loan applications to the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) surged 23.9 percent last month partially due to a significant increase in refinance applications according to the agency’s Single-Family Outlook report for August.

The FHA had a total of 142,793 loan applications in August, up from 115,263 applications in July. Applications were still down from August of last year when 200,907 applications were submitted, a decline of 28.9 percent.

Refinance loan applications increased by 60.1 percent from July to August with a total of 49,773 applications submitted in August compared to 31,081 submitted in July.

Refinance applications were still significantly lower compared to last year despite the record low interest rates in August. Applications were 52.4 percent lower than August 2010 which posted 104,652 submitted applications.

Purchase loan applications were also higher in August increasing by 11.2 percent compared to July. A total of 85,080 purchase applications were submitted in August, up from 76,543 applications submitted in July.

Purchase applications were slightly lower than the 86,569 applications that were submitted in August 2010.

The number of completed FHA insured loans increased 9.8 percent to 100,490 in August compared to 91,533 in July, but was still lower than the 139,045 completed applications in August 2010.

Purchase money mortgages accounted for 75.4 percent of all completed FHA insured loans in August with 75,798 completed, an increase of 10.9 percent from July, but still 15.1 percent lower than the 89,322 mortgages in August 2010.

The average FICO score for a homebuyer securing an FHA loan in August was 697, down from 699 in July and unchanged from a year ago. For refinanced transactions, the average FICO score in August was 695, while the average score a year earlier was 698.

At the end of August, the FHA had 7,259,736 insured single-family mortgages in its portfolio with an amortized balance of $1,012.8 billion.

The serious delinquency rate, homes that were 90 days or more past due, was 8.4 percent in August, up from 8.3 percent in July, but down from 8.5 percent in August 2010.

Tags: FHA, Single-family Outlook report, loan originations, purchase loans, refinance loans, FICO score, serious delinquency rate

Source:
HUD
LoanRateUpdate.com

August Residential Construction Numbers Disappoint

September 20, 2011 (Chris Moore)

Construction of new residential housing remained in the doldrums in August as both single-family and multi-family construction activity posted monthly declines according to the latest data released by the Census Bureau.

Privately owned housing starts declined by 5.0 percent in August compared to July with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 571,000 starts reported in August compared to July’s revised estimate of 601,000 starts. Housing starts were 5.8 percent lower than the August 2010 rate of 606,000 starts.

Single-family housing starts in August decreased from July’s revised figure of 423,000 to 417,000, a decline of 1.4 percent, and multi-family dwellings declined 12.4 percent from a revised 169,000 starts in July to 148,000 in August.

The number of building permits issued in August was higher than in July as builders were authorized a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 permits in August compared to a revised 601,000 in July, an increase of 3.2 percent. The number of permits issued were also above last years levels, which had an estimated 575,000 permits authorized.

Single-family building permit authorizations were 2.5 percent higher in August than July with 413,000 permits authorized compared to a revised 403,000 in July. Multi-family dwelling permits in August increased to 178,000 authorizations from a revised amount of 177,000 in July.

Housing completions declined in August compared to July with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000 completions reported compared to July’s revised estimate of 640,000 completions. Housing completions in August were 2.6 percent higher than the August 2010 rate of 607,000 completions.

Single-family completions in August were at a rate of 477,000, a decline of 0.2 percent from July’s revised rate of 478,000. Multi-family completions in August were at a rate of 143,000 which was a 7.1 percent decline from July’s 154,000 completions.

Regionally, housing starts increased in two of the four regions with the Midwest and the West posting gains of 2.6 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, and the Northeast and the South posting declines of 29.1 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.

Compared to a year ago, three of the four regions posted declines in housing starts with only the South region posting an increase.

Building permit authorizations increased in three of the four regions in August compared to July. In the Midwest, authorizations increased 6.3 percent and in the Northeast authorizations increased 3.3 percent. In the West, building permit authorizations were 11.3 percent higher, while in the South authorizations were 1.3 percent lower.

Building permit authorizations increased in three of the four regions compared to a year ago with only the Northeast posting a decline.

Tags: housing starts, single-family homes, multi-family dwellings, building permits, housing completions

Source:
Census Bureau
LoanRateUpdate.com

California Home Sales Bounce Back in August

September 19, 2011 (Shirley Allen)

Home sales in California rebounded from an 11.0 percent drop in July to an 8.8 percent gain in August as falling prices and low interest rates combine to give Californians record low monthly payments according real estate information provider DataQuick.

An estimated total of 37,734 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the Golden State in August. That was up from 34,695 sales in July and also up 10.2 percent from August 2010. Historically, California averages 48,344 home sales in the month of August.

The median price for a home in August decreased 1.2 percent to $249,000 from July’s median price of $252,000, and is down 4.2 percent from a median price of $260,000 in August of 2010. The statewide current cycle peak price was $484,000 in early 2007, while the low during the current cycle was $221,000 in April 2009.

Distressed properties continued to dominate the California market as 52.4 percent of all re-sales in August were distressed sales, up from 51.9 percent in July, with homes that had been foreclosed on in the previous twelve months accounting for 34.6 percent of the existing home sales in August.

That was up from 34.5 percent posted in the previous month of July but down from 35.6 posted in August of 2010.

Short sales increased to 17.8 percent of all re-sales last month, up from 17.3 percent in July and down from 18.0 percent in August of 2010.

The typical monthly mortgage payment for home buyers declined by $45 from July to August falling to $982, the lowest payment on record for California since DataQuick began keeping track in 1988.

The payment was also $63 less than the $1,045 payment observed in August 2010. August’s typical mortgage payment is 64.4 percent lower than it was during the current cycle’s peak in June 2006.

Tags: DataQuick, new and re-sale homes, condos, sales, median home prices, distressed properties, short sales, typical mortgage payment

Source:
DataQuick
LoanRateUpdate.com

Homebuilder Confidence Dips in September

September 19, 2011 (Brian Michael)

Confidence among the nation’s new single-family home builders dipped slightly in September according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) as economic challenges continue to keep potential home buyers away.

The HMI is derived from a survey that NAHB has been conducting for over 20 years. The index gauges builder perceptions of current single family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good, fair, or poor.” Builders are also asked to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high, average or low to very low.” Each component is then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where a score over 50 indicates builder’s view sales conditions as good.

The HMI dipped one point from 15 in August to 14 in September.

All three components that make up the HMI declined from the previous month. The component gauging sales expectations over the next six months, which had declined 2 points last month, also slipped another two points to a level of 17 in September.

The component gauging current sales conditions declined from 16 last month to14 in September and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers declined two points from last month to11 in September.

Regionally, the Midwest was the only region to post a gain in the HMI increasing one point to 11, the South declined two points to 15, while the West dropped three points to 12. The Northeast also posted a two point decline, bringing its HMI score to 15 for the month.

"Very little has changed in terms of housing market conditions so far this year," said NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nevada. "Builders continue to confront the same challenges in accessing construction credit, obtaining accurate appraisal values for new homes, and competing against foreclosed properties that they have seen for some time. Beyond this, both builder and consumer confidence took a hit in recent weeks with the market disruptions caused by the S&P downgrade and congressional gridlock on the budget deficit."

Tags: NAHB, Wells Fargo, Housing Market Index, HMI, homebuilders, sales expectations, builder confidence, single-family homes, competition, distressed properties, appraisals

Source:
NAHB
LoanRateUpdate.com

Bay Area Home Sales Rebound in August but Prices Fall

September 19, 2011 (Brian Michael)

Bay Area home sales rebounded in August after a surprise drop in July but still remained far below historic levels according to data collected by real estate information provider DataQuick.

A total of 7,513 new and resale homes were sold in August in the nine county Bay Area, which includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, Santa Clara, San Francisco, San Mateo, Solano and Sonoma Counties. That was a gain of 9.1 percent from July’s 6,887 sales and also a gain of 12.2 percent from the 6,698 sales posted in August of 2010.

The Bay Area historically sees a sales increase of 3.4 percent between July and August. Home sales in the Bay Area were 22.4 percent below the historic August average of 9,682 homes sold. The lowest amount of homes sold in the Bay Area in August since 1988 was 6,688 in 1992, while the highest amount of homes sold was 13,940 in 2004.

However, because August had 23 business days in which home sales could be recorded compared to 20 days in July, the average number of homes sold per day in August was actually five percent lower than in July but were still 7.3 percent higher than in August 2010.

“The sliver of positive news here is that, no matter how you look at it, last month’s sales beat the year-ago numbers, which were pretty lousy. Lower prices and mortgage rates lured some homebuyers off the sidelines last month, but too many others lacked the confidence to step into the game. They worried about their job, or about prices falling more. Others couldn’t get a loan because credit remains drum-tight, or they couldn’t move because they’re underwater,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

The median price for new and resale homes and condos declined 1.1 percent to $370,000 in August compared to $374,000 in July. The median price was down 3.9 percent from $385,000 in August of 2010, the eleventh straight month that year-over-year home prices have dropped.

By comparison, the lowest median price posted during the current real estate cycle was $290,000 in March 2009, while the peak median price was $665,000 in July/August 2007.

Distressed home sales made up 45.0 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market last month, with foreclosure re-sales accounting for 26.4 percent of re-sales in August, up from 25.9 percent in July, while short sales made up about 18.6 percent of Bay Area’s sales last month, down from 18.8 percent in July.

Foreclosure re-sales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009 while the historic rate of foreclosure re-sales is about nine percent.

Tags: Bay Area, DataQuick, home sales, home prices, spring selling season, median sales price, new homes, re-sale homes

Source:
Dataquick
LoanRateUpdate.com

Home Sales Improve in August as Year-Over-Year Price Gap Narrows

September 16, 2011 (Brian Michael)

Home sales rebounded in August after a disappointing July as monthly closed transactions increased by 3.7 percent and were 18 percent higher than August 2010 according to RE/MAX’s National Housing Report (NHR).

Forty-seven out of the 53 metro areas in the report posted year-over-year increases in closed transactions. Pittsburgh, PA (+60.6%), Minneapolis, MN (+48.4%), Albuquerque, NM (+43.0%), Milwaukee, WI (+37.1%), Seattle, WA (+29.4%), Phoenix, AZ (+26.4%) and Chicago, IL (+25.7%) recorded the highest gains in closed transactions in August.

Sales prices in August were just 0.6 percent lower than in July and were 3.6 percent lower than in August 2010. The median sales price in August 2011 was $189,831, down from $193,042 in July and down from a median sales price of $196,996 in August of 2010.

Only 10 of the 53 metro areas recorded higher prices in August than they did a year earlier. The areas that posted the largest price gains were Detroit, MI (+15.7%), Orlando, FL (+14.2%), Milwaukee, WI (+10.6%) and Pittsburgh, PA (+2.2%).

The year-over-year median price difference has improved for the last five months. In July the price difference from a year earlier was 4.6 percent.

The average number of days it took to sell a home in August was 90, which was up from 88 days in July. Inventory declined in August as the average months supply of inventory dropped to 6.8 months, down from 7.2 in July and down from a 9.2 months supply of homes in August 2010.

“We’re pleased to see transactions pushing higher in August and without any artificial stimulus.” said Margaret Kelly, CEO of RE/MAX, LLC. “Although the housing recovery will continue to be uneven, the market is struggling to return to normal despite uncertainty in the economy and stubborn unemployment rates.”

Tags: RE/MAX, home sales, home prices, National Housing Report, market recovery, seasonal trends, closed transactions

Source:
RE/MAX
LoanRateUpdate.com

August Home Prices Stable as Inventories Continue to Decline

September 15, 2011 (Chris Moore)

Home prices continued to show signs of stability in August as the median list price for existing homes remained the same for the third consecutive month despite homeowners having to wait even longer to sell their homes according to the latest data housing released by Realtor.com

Total listings of existing homes decreased 1.90 percent from July with a total of 2,267,327 single-family homes, condos, townhomes, and co-ops listed for sale in August compared to 2,311,279 in July. The number of homes listed for sale in August was 19.0 percent lower than a year ago.

The median list price for an existing home in August was $189,900, unchanged from the median list price for the previous two months. The median list price was 0.48 pecent higher than in August 2010.

The area with the largest year-over-year decline in the median list price for the second consecutive month was Chicago, IL, where the median price has dropped 13.05 percent since August of 2010. The median list price from July to August was unchanged for the second consecutive month.

The area with the largest year-over-year increase in the median list price, for the third consecutive month, was the Fort Myers-Cape Coral, FL area where the median price has increased 33.21 percent since August of last year. However, the median price in the area decreased by 2.07 percent from July to August. Miami continued to run a close second with year-over-year median list prices increasing by 24.56 percent.

The average list price for an existing home in August was $320,325, which was a 0.40 percent increase from July’s average list price of $319,046 and 2.63 percent higher than August 2010.

The average number of days that an existing home spent on the market climbed to 103 in August compared to 97 days in July. Seventy-two out of the 146 metropolitan areas required 100 days or more to sell a home.

The Southeastern area of the United States continued to dominant the list of homes that take the longest the sell led by the southern region of South Carolina at 172 days, but many areas of the Northeast joined the list in August led by Reading, PA, at 138 days.

Tags: Realtor.com, housing inventory, listed homes, home prices, median sales price, average list price

Source:
Realtor.com
LoanRateUpdate.com

Weekly Home Sales and Prices Drop

September 13, 2011 (Chris Moore)

Weekly home sales volume dropped last week for the first time after four consecutive weeks of rising sales, while weekly home prices continued to drop for the fourth consecutive week according to the National Home Sales Snapshot released by DataQuick.

The number of homes sold over the previous thirty day period ending September 8 was 187,688 properties, down from the previous week’s total sales of 190,688 properties.

Despite the decline in sales, the number of homes sold was still 5.8 percent higher than the same period a year ago. Home sales for the period were down 12.0 percent from the same period three years ago.

The median price of a home sold over the previous thirty day period ending September 8 was $182,000, down from $183,000 for the period ending the previous week. Home prices were 6.7 percent lower than the same period a year ago and down 20.9 percent from the same period three years ago.

During the same time period last year, the median price of a home in the U.S. was $195,000. Three years ago the median price during this same period was $230,000.

Over the last five years, median home prices have ranged from a high of $275,000 to a low of $170,000.

Sales volume for a thirty day period within the last five years has ranged from a high of 339,669 properties sold to a low of 119,636.

The National Home Sales Snapshot includes 98 out of the top 100 metropolitan statistical areas covering 66.25 percent of U.S. home sales.

Tags: DataQuick, home sales, median home price, sales volume

Source:
DataQuick
LoanRateUpdate.com

Twelve Areas Showing Signs of Improvement

September 13, 2011 (Brian Michael)

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports that twelve metropolitan areas in its new NAHB/First American Improving Market Index (IMI) have shown improvement for at least six months in three key economic areas.

Utilizing data from almost 360 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), the index measures three independently collected or calculated indicators of improving economic health.

The three indicators are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price growth from Freddie Mac and single family housing growth from the Census Bureau. Each MSA must see improvement in all three indicators for at least a six month period after their respective trough before being categorized as improving.

For this month, the 12 MSAs that met the criteria include:

• Alexandria, LA
• Anchorage, AK
• Bangor, ME
• Bismarck, ND
• Casper, WY
• Fairbanks, AK
• Fayetteville, NC
• Houma, LA
• Midland, TX
• New Orleans, LA
• Pittsburgh, PA
• Waco, TX

“Despite the challenging conditions in the national economy and housing sector, there are areas throughout the country where we are seeing pockets of improvement” said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. “Housing conditions are local, and do not always reflect the national picture. We created this new index to shine a light on those housing markets across the country that have stabilized and have begun to show signs of recovery.”

Although this is a new report for NAHB, research shows that December of 2010 was the first month that any of the MSAs met the required criteria when 5 MSAs showed improvement for the first time. Last year at this time, NAHB said none of the MSAs would have shown improvement using the IMIs criteria.

Tags: NAHB, First American, Improving Market Index, employment growth, house price growth, single family housing growth

Source:
NAHB
LoanRateUpdate.com

Fed Beige Book: Reduced Expectations for Economic Growth

September 12, 2011 (Chris Moore)

Economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace with some Districts of the Federal Reserve reporting mixed or weakening activity according to the latest edition of the Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve.

Of the Twelve Federal Reserve Districts, five Districts reported economic activity as either modest or slightly expanding, three Districts reported economic activity at a subdued or at a sluggish pace, and the remaining Districts reported slowing or weaker overall economic activity.

Several Districts reported that many contacts had downgraded or had become more cautious about their near term economic outlook due to the recent stock market volatility and increased economic uncertainty.

Real estate remained weak overall with the Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis and Dallas Districts reporting an increase in home sales over year ago levels. The remaining Districts reported stable or slower sales since the last Beige Book. Foreclosure backlogs were cited in several Districts as weighing down the housing market in their areas.

Housing construction activity remained weak and stagnant except in the Minneapolis and Kansas City Districts. Apartment building showed improvement in New York, Philadelphia, and Cleveland with several Districts also reporting improvements in home remodeling activity.

Most Districts reported flat or declining home sales prices except for New York, which reported prices in many areas edged higher though below year ago prices.

Housing inventory levels were reported to be rising in several Districts with demand for apartment space increasing in San Francisco and Dallas.

Loan demand was reported as stable or slightly weaker in most Districts since the last report with only New York and Cleveland reporting an increased demand for residential mortgages.

Loan quality was generally improved in most Districts and credit standards were largely unchanged since the last report. Several Districts reported reduced economic expectations for economic growth due to volatility in financial markets, a weak economic recovery, and uncertainty about financial regulations.

Tags: Federal Reserve, Beige Book, housing market, moderate economic gains, increased hiring, real estate markets, single family homes, multifamily market, construction activity

Source:
Federal Reserve
LoanRateUpdate.com

Housing Survey Shows Pessimism Deepening

September 9, 2011 (Chris Moore)

If it’s any wonder why Americans continue to sit on the sidelines when mortgage interest rates are at their all-time lows, Fannie Mae’s August National Housing Survey can give you plenty of reasons why.

While those mortgage interest rates are at all-time lows, American's pessimism towards the economy, home prices, and household finances are at their highest levels since August of last year.

According to Fannie Mae’s report, seventy-eight percent of the Americans surveyed say the economy is on the wrong track. That virtually matches Rasmussen’s latest poll on August 31st, which found that 76 percent of those polled believed the country was going in the wrong direction.

Twenty-seven percent of Americans in Fannie Mae’s survey believed that home prices will go down over the next year. That was a bit more optimistic than what Rasmussen’s August 18th poll which showed 35 percent of those surveyed believed home values would go down over the next year.

And while 69 percent of the respondents overwhelmingly agreed that now was a good time to buy a home, the sellers didn’t quite share their optimism. Only nine percent of the sellers said it was a good time to sell a home.

Household finances weighed heavily on the minds of Americans as 22 percent of those surveyed expect their financial situation to worsen over the next year, the highest level of pessimism seen since August of last year.

Twenty-one percent of the households said their income had increased over the past year while 17 percent said their income had declined significantly. Forty-one percent of the households reported that their expenses had increased significantly compared to 12 months ago.

“The degree to which consumer attitudes appear to be sensitive to global events is interesting, and seems to be reflected in their view of the economy and their growing overall pessimism," said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. "I believe the public was looking at the U.S. debt, deficit, and the ensuing political struggle with one eye, and looking at Europe and their sovereign debt issues with the other eye, and saying: 'This is not what we want.'"

A little more than half of the Americans surveyed believe the economy is going to be worse in a year from now according to Rasmussen. That’s a pretty grim picture. But the latest Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association conveys what consumers are thinking. Despite record low, or near record low interest rates for the past five weeks, purchase applications have remained near 15 year lows.

And the lack of purchase applications is a pretty good indication of future buying activity, signaling that potential home buyers are staying away from the market, the consequences of which will surely be reflected in many of the future housing indices.

It also certainly proves that it’s going to take more than just low interest rates to get the housing market moving again.

Tags: Fannie Mae, Rasmussen, pessimism, housing survey, economy, home prices, household finances

Sources:
Fannie Mae
Rasmussen
LoanRateUpdate.com

Housing Prices Up in Latest Quarter but Challenges Ahead

September 8, 2011 (Brian Michael)

U.S. home prices increased by 4.0 percent in the latest rolling quarter according to Clear Capital’s Home Data Index (HDI), but the growth rate shows signs of slowing as the summer buying season ends and eroding consumer confidence could make for a bumpy ride for the rest of the year.

All four regions posted quarterly gains for the second consecutive month with the largest price gains posted in the Midwest (7.3%), followed by the Northeast (4.9%), the South (3.5%), and the West (0.7%).

But the summer’s gains were not nearly large enough to offset last year’s price declines as all four regions continued to post year-over-year declines with the Midwest suffering the largest decline of 9.8 percent followed by the West (-6.9%), the South (-5.7%), and the Northeast (-2.0%).

However, in the last six months prices are showing some signs of stabilizing as prices in the Northeast have increased 4.2 percent, in the Midwest and in the South prices have increased 1.9 percent, and in the West prices have increased 0.1 percent.

“Although the summer gains appear to signal strong growth in home prices, it’s important to keep in mind that these gains are off of the record lows of winter,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “With summer coming to a close and the price gains clearly starting to level off, the market is at a critical juncture as to whether it can avoid another significant downturn into the slower buying seasons of fall and winter.”

The Real Estate Owned (REO) saturation rate declined nationally to 26.3 percent at the end of the recent quarter compared to 28.7 percent at the end of the previous quarter as areas with lower REO saturation rates generally continued to post better performance in housing prices.

In the 15 highest performing markets, three of markets experienced year-over-year price gains and extremely low REO saturation rates. Pittsburgh posted a year-over-year price gain of 3.9 percent and an REO saturation rate of 6.3 percent, Rochester posted a price gain of 0.9 percent with a saturation rate of only 5.9 percent, and Washington D.C. posted a 0.8 percent price gain with a saturation rate of 14.2 percent. Most of the remaining 12 areas that didn’t see a price increase generally posted smaller declines in housing prices from the previous year.

In the 15 lowest performing markets, large year-over-year price declines were generally posted in areas with the highest REO saturation rates. Detroit posted a year-over-year price decline of 17.9 percent with an REO saturation rate of 51.2 percent, the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area posted a price decline of 15.8 percent and a saturation rate of 21.9 percent, Tucson posted a price decline of 14.2 percent and a saturation rate of 40.2 percent, and Jacksonville posted a price decline of 13.2 percent and a saturation rate of 33.5 percent.

Seasonal sales gains are giving way to a softening market as consumer confidence continues to be eroded by continuing bad economic news which is keeping potential home buyers on the sidelines.

Home sales rates have already began to slow and if mortgage servicers finally settle with government regulators over foreclosure processing mistakes, a steadier flow of REO properties could hit the market, putting further downward pressure on home prices that could make for a challenging housing market in the fall and winter.

“The latest readings on consumer confidence paint an ominous picture that at present, consumers are still not ready to risk jumping into the market despite very low mortgage rates and very affordable home prices,” added Villacorta.

Tags: Clear Capital, housing prices, price declines, REO, saturation rate, consumer demand, metropolitan areas

Source:
Clear Capital
LoanRateUpdate.com

2Q Loan Modifications Drop but Loan Performance Improves

September 7, 2011 (Brian Michael)

Loan modifications made by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac declined for the fourth consecutive quarter as foreclosure prevention actions under the governments HARP program exceeded those under HAMP according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) Second Quarter Foreclosure Preventions and Refinance Report.

Although the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) initially got off to a slow start, the cumulative total of refinancings through HARP by the end of the second quarter in June increased 11 percent to approximately 838,400 loans refinanced.

Whereas, according the government’s August Housing Scorecard, the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) has had a cumulative total of 763,071 active trial or completed loan modifications since March 2009.

HAMP allows a borrower’s payment to be modified through an interest rate reduction, a term extension, or a principal forbearance.

HARP is designed to assist homeowners in refinancing their mortgages, even if they owe more than the home’s current value.

Since entering conservatorship in the fourth quarter of 2008, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have now completed nearly 1.8 million foreclosure prevention actions.

The total amount of completed foreclosure actions in the second quarter of 2011 was 167,629, which was a decline from 171,531 posted in the previous quarter, primarily due to a decrease in loan modifications and forbearance plans.

Short sales helped make up for the some of the shortcomings in loan modifications, increasing from 25,705 in the first quarter to 29,483 in the second quarter.

The amount of completed loan modifications dropped to 81,214 in the second quarter of 2011, down from 86,201 in the previous quarter.

Loan modifications made in 2010 and after continued to perform better than the loans that had been modified in earlier periods as a result of deeper payment reductions to a larger proportion of the borrowers and the requirement that borrowers must successfully complete a trial period before being granted a permanent loan modification.

In the second quarter, 49 percent of all loan modifications between Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae had a payment reduction greater than 30 percent, 18 percent had a payment reduction between 21 and 30 percent, and 26 percent of the modifications had a payment reduction of less than 20 percent.

The rate of re-delinquency has dropped substantially since the inception of the government’s loan modification efforts. The percentage of loans previously modified that have become re-delinquent (60 days or more past due) after three months has dropped from a high of 28 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 to seven percent in the first quarter of 2011.

The number of loans that have become re-delinquent within six months of being modified dropped from a high of 37 percent in the third quarter of 2008 to 12 percent in the 4th quarter of 2010 and modified loans that became re-delinquent within 90 days has dropped from a high of 42 percent in the third and fourth quarter of 2008 to 15 percent in the third quarter of 2010 (the latest quarters recorded.)

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae continue to maintain delinquency rates far below industry standards with their combined delinquency rate dropping from 4.02 percent in the first quarter to 3.85 percent in the second quarter compared to an industry average of 7.9 percent.

Tags: Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, FHFA, foreclosure preventions, refinance HAMP, HARP, loan modifications, repayment plans, interest rate reduction, term extension

Source:
FHFA
LoanRateUpdate.com

Wells Fargo: 8.7k Mortgage Loan Modifications in July

September 6, 2011 (Brian Michael)

Wells Fargo reports that 8,784 active trial or completed loan mortgage modifications were posted in July, down from 9,759 in June. As of July 31, 2011, Wells Fargo says it has completed or has in active trial 704,869 mortgage loan modifications since January 2009, up from 696,085 at the end of June.

Eighty-five percent of those loans, 599,465, were modified through the company's own loan modification programs while the remaining 15 percent, 105,404, were modified through the federal government’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). Those percentages were unchanged from June.

Michael DeVito, executive vice president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage Default Servicing, stated, "Wells Fargo continues to work with borrowers on mortgage modifications and other options that can help them remain in their homes and avoid foreclosure when they encounter financial difficulties. Our priority is to prevent as many foreclosures as possible by working with financially distressed customers – and we want them to know we are there to help them."

Since January of 2009, Wells Fargo has helped more than 4.4 million homeowners obtain new low rate loans, either to purchase a home or to refinance their existing loan with 93 percent of its home loan customers remaining current on their mortgage payments as of the second quarter of 2011 and less than two percent of the loans in its portfolio proceeding to a foreclosure sale.

According to the latest information released in the Obama Administration’s August Housing Scorecard, Wells Fargo had the second highest amount of active HAMP modifications in the month of June, with only Bank of America having more.

Year-to-date among the top ten mortgage servicers in the country, Wells Fargo’s loan modification efforts under HAMP were only surpassed by Bank of America and J.P. Morgan Chase.

Tags: Wells Fargo, trial modification, completed modifications, loan modifications, HAMP, borrowers, Housing Scorecard

Source:
Wells Fargo
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August Housing Scorecard Points to a Fragile Recovery

September 2, 2011 (Chris Moore)

The housing market showed its fragility in July as the improvements brought on by seasonal selling trends the last few months gave way to a mixed bag of data that points to a recovery that is still a long ways off according to the latest release of the Obama Administrations Housing Scorecard.

Loan performance took a hit in July as delinquency rates unexpectedly increased across the board. At the end of July, prime mortgages that were at least 30 days of more delinquent increased to 4.5 percent from 4.4 percent in June, down from the peak of 5.9 percent seen in 2010.

Performance of sub-prime mortgages also took a turn for the worse as loans that were 30 days or more delinquent increased to 33.2 percent, up from a revised 32.9 percent in June, but down from 36.4 percent reported a year earlier.

Seriously delinquent mortgages, those that are more than 90 days delinquent or in foreclosure, were mixed in July.

Seriously delinquent prime mortgages showed improvement with 1.485 million loans in trouble at the end of July, down from 1.490 million in June and down from 1.742 million a year earlier.

Sub-prime mortgages that were seriously delinquent numbered 1.728 million in July, up from 1.721 million in June, but down from 1.817 million in July of last year.

Loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) that were seriously delinquent increased to 599,000 in July, up from 585,000 in June and up from 560,000 in July 2010.

Since the beginning of the Homeowner Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) in 2009 until the end of June 2011, nearly 5 million modification arrangements have been started. In July, 28,300 homeowners received a permanent loan modification through HAMP raising the total amount of permanent modifications to 763,100. July’s HAMP efforts still fell short of the 31,600 completed in June.

HAMP trial modifications also declined in July with 22,100 new trial modifications started for the month, down from 24,700 in June. HOPE NOW proprietary modifications also declined in July, dropping to 51,600 modifications from a revised 56,400 modifications in June.

Through the end of June, HOPE NOW loan modifications have provided help for 2.423 million homeowners.

Home prices were slightly higher in July compared to June, but new and existing home sales declined leading to an increase in inventory supply from 9.2 months of supply to 9.4 months.

Foreclosure starts, Notice of Foreclosure Sales, and foreclosure completions all declined in July, but a constricted foreclosure pipeline led to an even larger decline in REO sales.

“The Obama Administration is dedicated to helping homeowners who were negatively affected by the housing crisis and this month’s scorecard shows signs of these programs working,” said HUD Assistant Secretary Raphael Bostic. “Data shows improvements in home prices, which have increased three months in a row, and a reduction in foreclosure starts and completions, which have been trending downward since fall 2010. Although the data suggests improvement, we are still continuing to work with homeowners, lenders, servicers, and others so that this positive trend continues. ”

Tags: August Housing Scorecard, Obama Administration, loan modifications, mortgage delinquencies, trial modifications, prime mortgages, sub-prime mortgages, FHA

Source:
Treasury.gov
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Home Improvement Spending Higher than Residential Construction in July

September 2, 2011 (Shirley Allen)

Private residential construction spending declined 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $248.1 billion in July from a revised estimate of $251.7 billion in June according to the U.S. Census Bureau as the total amount spent on home improvements exceeded the amount builder's spent on new private residential construction.

Monthly spending by builders for all private construction types was 0.8 percent lower than the revised estimate of $519.0 billion in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $514.5 billion in July.

Private residential construction in July was 4.1 percent higher than in July of 2010 when builders spent a seasonally adjusted $245.8 billion and total private construction spending was 5.5 percent higher than last July’s seasonally adjusted rate of $487.6 billion.

Private construction spending on new single-family homes was virtually unchanged from June to July with builders spending a seasonally adjusted $105.1 billion in July. June’s estimate was downwardly revised from $105.3 billion to $105.0 billion. Single-family home construction spending was down 8.4 percent compared to July of 2010, when builders spent a seasonally adjusted $114.8 billion.

Multi-family private construction spending increased 1.4 percent from June to July, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $14.0 billion. June’s estimate was upwardly revised from $13.6 billion to $13.8 billion. Multi-family construction spending was down 6.0 percent compared to July 2010 which saw spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $14.9 billion.

The remainder of the private residential construction spending in July, $129.0 billion, was money spent for any type of construction to an existing structure ranging from remodeling to additions to swimming pools to replacement of major systems such as HVAC systems. This was a decrease from an upwardly revised $132.9 billion in June and an increase from $105.8 billion spent in July of 2010.

Tags: Census Bureau, residential construction spending, single-family homes, multi-family dwellings, seasonally adjusted annual rate, remodeling, additions

Source:
Census Bureau
LoanRateUpdate.com

Fannie Mae Completes 17k Loan Modifications in July

September 1, 2011 (Brian Michael)

Fannie Mae reports that the monthly delinquency rate for single-family homes in its mortgage portfolio remained unchanged in July at 4.08 percent according to its Monthly Summary for July 2011. A year ago, Fannie Mae’s delinquency rate was 4.82 percent and with the exception of July, has improved every month since.

The total amount of loan modifications made by mortgage servicers of Fannie Mae-backed loans in July was 17,540, slightly higher than the 17,246 loan modifications completed in June. For the first seven months of the year Fannie Mae has completed a total of 118,919 loan modifications, an average of 16,988 per month.

Delinquency rates for multi-family dwellings continued to improve as the delinquency rate dropped to 0.45 percent in July 2011, down from 0.46 percent in June. The delinquency rate for multi-family dwellings in July of 2010 was 0.74 percent.

Single-family delinquencies are based on the number of mortgages 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure as of period end while multifamily delinquencies are based on the unpaid principal balance of mortgages 60 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure as of period end.

Fannie Mae’s total mortgage portfolio decreased at a compounded annualized rate of 12.9 percent in July as their Gross Mortgage Portfolio decreased from $731.8 billion in June to $728.0 billion. Fannie Mae’s Book of Business decreased at a compounded annualized rate of 3.4 percent in July to $3.097 trillion.

A year ago, Fannie Mae’s Gross Mortgage Portfolio stood at $812.0 billion and their Book of Business stood at $3.099 trillion.

Tags: Fannie Mae, Monthly Summary Report, single-family homes, delinquency rates, multi-family dwellings, mortgage portfolio, loan modifications

Source:
Fannie Mae
LoanRateUpdate.com

Foreclosure Starts and Sales Decline but Delinquencies Are Up

September 1, 2011 (Shirley Allen)

The number of proprietary loan modifications rebounded in July after a 7.5 percent decline in June according to HOPE NOW, the voluntary, private sector alliance of mortgage servicers, investors, mortgage insurers and non-profit counselors. Meanwhile, foreclosure starts and sales declined and mortgage delinquencies climbed upwards.

The organization reports that 55,687 homeowners received permanent, proprietary loan modifications in July compared to 50,283 in June, an increase of 11 percent. Almost 4.8 million proprietary loan modifications and Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) loan modifications have been completed since 2007.

Of the proprietary loan modifications completed, 80 percent (44,413) included reduced monthly principal and interest payments, with 60 percent (33,302) receiving a reduction of more than 10 percent. In addition, 87 percent (44,402) received fixed interest rate loans of five years or more.

The number of loan modifications completed under the federal government’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) for July had not been reported yet, but based on current trends, about 30,000 modifications were probably completed.

Total proprietary modifications and HAMP modifications for July were about 85,000, exceeding the 81,903 modifications in June.

Monthly foreclosure starts declined in July with 185,076 starts recorded, compared to 194,310 in June, a decline of 5 percent. Completed foreclosure sales dropped from 72,570 in June to 64,578 in July, a decline of 11 percent.

Mortgage delinquencies that are at least 60 days past due increased from 2.75 million properties in June to 2.81 million in July.

July’s data also shows that 80 percent of previous permanent proprietary loan modifications remained less than 90 days past due in the last year. This was the fifth consecutive month that 90 days past due loan performance has remained at that level.


Faith Schwartz, Executive Director of HOPE NOW, stated, “We are happy to see an increase in permanent proprietary loan modifications for the month of July. More encouraging is the significant drop in foreclosure sales and starts, which is directly related to the extraordinary amount of work that is being done to educate at-risk homeowners about their options. Loan modifications continue at a steady rate, and in cases where that option is not possible mortgage servicers and housing counselors have the ability to offer a wide range of other solutions.”

Tags: HOPE NOW, private sector alliance, mortgage servicers, loan modifications, fixed rate mortgages, delinquencies, proprietary modifications, foreclosure starts, foreclosure sales

Source:
HOPE NOW
LoanRateUpdate.com